The Game Industry Update for Apr’25
Dragged my feet because I was too right to be excited
Welcome to another hacked out bit of game industry analysis because the whim hit me. At risk of spoiling the article a bit, I feel very justified about many things, but have also been completely shocked by how quickly things developed the way they did.
Anywho…
Despite Claims to the Contrary, Everyone Wanted a Switch 2
At this point, loud, speculative complaints should be seen as a form of positive excitement around a product.
It’s when something is met with apathy that companies should be worried…
I, for one, will be suing Nintendo for stealing my “If I was President of Nintendo” diary entry.
120fps
4K
HDR
Mouse controls!?!
GameCube collection
Backwards compatibility with upgrade options on some titles
AN EXCLUSIVE FROMSOFT GAME!?!?
Nintendo brand Discord…
All without announcing anything about the Xeno series, which I have specifically been holding out on for the Switch 2 before I play. I couldn’t feel any more seen and yet utterly disrespected. What a time to be alive.
Putting the analysis cap back on, Nintendo really did do exactly what I was hoping they would: refine the Switch. It’s already a great platform which is standard enough that everyone knows how to do something with it, but open enough that people can do something weird if they want to.
This is exactly where Nintendo needs to be at this point. We aren’t in the 90s and 00s. Consumer computer hardware is pretty well “solved” at the fundamental level. What they want from their hardware is consistency and inherit flexibility, so they can do all manner of wacky experiments with smaller buy ins.
Like LABO. There are very things they can’t just release as extensions to the Switch platform if they wanna be fun, wacky Nintendo. And all their fans can buy into those little experiments ala carte.
Meanwhile, those of us who like a balance between traditional console experiences and the more creative side can now enjoy that with a modern standard of fidelity.
It’s perfect and I love it.
[Premium] PC Gaming is Dead
Yeah. Wow.
On the other end of the spectrum, Nvidia’s 50 series cards have launched and gone through rigorous evaluation since my last update. And, while I knew it wasn’t going to be a big release for raw throughput, I was utterly surprised by just. how. little additional horsepower that ended up being.
About 15% for the 5090 and 5080 on average… which comes with a 15% increase in power consumption. Not only is that the smallest generation increase we’ve seen on the high end to date, it’s also effectively a 0% power efficiency increase.
Why is it like this? Well, as far as I can tell, it’s because no progress has been made in terms of shrinking the processor nodes. So, effectively this is just a layout update at the processor level.
Now, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t have been a bigger update… but uh…. Well, I’ll say more after I get to AMD.
What about the AI Features?
The new AI features came out and… were exactly what they looked like, for better and worse. There is no magic with multi-frame gen, it really is only really useful if you can already hit a solid 60-90 frames per second. So, it’s only real reason to exist—it seems—is for people playing on 240hz+ monitors. Which is already a very niche product and experience.
It’s also… kind of a dumb one. I’ve had monitors that hit those framerates, and you get them when want them to play games like Counter Strike, League of Legends, Fortnite, etc. at a competitive level. Where you need as much visual information with as little input lag as possible.
Multi-frame gen gives you frames but for a slightly higher overall latency than playing without it on. So… it’s for primarily competitive players who occasionally want to play AAA games in high fidelity on their fancy monitors.
Except it’s also kinda not, because active competitive players are buying 1080p and 2k for their high refresh monitors, not 4k. Anyone with sense has a second 4k panel somewhere that’s 120hz tops for the “looker” games. And if they don’t care about the looks they’re probably playing without multi-framegen anyway and you know what you get the point moving on—
AMD Succeeded by Doing Nothing and I Still Lost
Those madmen did it! They made a card of equal performance to last year’s high end for 2/3rds of the MSRP!
…
Unfortunately, because Nvidia’s top end was such a dud, this means the sharks were hungry and swarming by the time this morsel dropped.
This is 2 months later. These are the cheapest listed and it’s still sold out even up to the $280 markup.
That’s the first one available.
Is the card everything I was hoping it would be? According to reviews, absolutely!
Unfortunately, it doesn’t actually exist as far as I’m concerned.
But here’s the really interesting part
Desktop graphics hit a ceiling this generation. AMD didn’t make a more powerful card than last year. They actually made a slightly less powerful one… just with a lot better features overall. The ceiling was softer in Nvidia’s case, but given their history as the top dog, even that’s a very dramatic thing.
15% is absurdly low for a generational improvement. 30% used to be considered “underwhelming” in the high end GPU market.
The promise of the modern PC gaming platform is that you’ll get higher fidelity sooner than consoles. That only works if GPU improvements are outpacing consoles. Which they were, and still are.
But while consoles take 7-9 years between generations, they come with at least twice the computing power, if not sometimes three or four times. And now, with mid-generation “pro” models being a consistent part of PlayStation’s strategy, and a consideration from the other two, it’s almost more of a 3-5 year gap in the fidelity race, albeit with only 30-50% increases in the middle.
…Which, thanks to this lackluster generation of GPUs, is exactly the cadence PCs just fell into. And while the highest tiers of performance are still only available on PC, the premium is now absurd to make it worth it.
For reference, a PS5 Pro is about $700 for the full package, and has a GPU about equivalent to a 4070, and once you really start optimizing for it being a console, the Pro can even duke it out with the 4070ti.
The lowest price for a 4070 right now on Newegg is $600. That’s without any other components. An equivalent CPU is gonna tag another $200-300 dollars. Motherboard: $150-200 (which is also absurd, but the state of things). RAM: $100. Fan: $40. Case: $40. Power supply: $80-100. SSD: $100-150.
So, just with the prices I remember from my last time building (last year), we’re at ~$1300-1550. And THEN we have to throw a minimum of $50-100 to start actually making it better. And since the PS5 Pro is hitting 4k 60 pretty easily at good fidelity in all but the most absurdly demanding games, we’re really aiming for something like a 60-100% total performance uplift to make it worth it.
Which means we’re throwing another $400 at the GPU and $150 at the CPU minimum, and now we’re down $2000 before your computer is actually got enough performance margin over the PS5 Pro to make it worth the money—for fidelity nerds like me.
I paid $3000 for a computer four years ago, when the PS5 was out and cost a mere $400-500, so believe me, I know this equation still works out for some people.
But that was when we thought there was no chance consoles were ever going to catch back up. Now the top end console is within spitting distance of the highest attainable consumer graphics card—that is, the 5080, seeing how the 5090 has completely left our atmosphere on the price wars (look it up if you don’t already know). And what’s more, there’s no longer that invincible guarantee that the next generation of PC hardware will have any improvement, let alone a significant enough one to beat out the PS6…
Which Sony is already openly talking about during their technical deep dives on the 5 Pro.
God bless Mike Cerny.
I need to take a moment and express how AWESOME it is that Cerny is doing these updates. This one was loaded with information.
Now, consoles are also in tricky territory with the current state of processor manufacturing, but consoles have headroom to work with, and thanks to AMD’s 9070xt and their partnership with Sony, they just proved that catching up is very possible.
If PC hardware is sluggish for just one more generation, that’s it. The fidelity race is over. No one in their right mind would buy a PC…
…for fidelity.
A New Form of PC Gaming Will Live on Strong
Remember that Halo Strix APU I mentioned last time? No? You didn’t read the last one?
That’s okay. I’m not going to cover it all here today, but the short version is PC’s have a route out of their existential hole. They can become consoles.
The main architectural difference between consoles and gaming PCs right now (to my knowledge) is the division between the GPU processor stack and the CPU. APUs throw that out. The thing was, though, that none of the processor manufacturers bothered to attempt a high end APU. Probably for several good reasons at the time (I’ll save that whole story for another time after I do more research), but now apparently those reasons have been assessed and thrown out.
AMD has a high end APU.
We don’t know what it’s going to be like in practice, yet, but based on products like the Steam Deck, which as a low-medium grade AMD APU, it’s gonna keep the PC gaming space relevant by providing a cost effective medium-high spec option for people who want a PC for the flexibility and variety, not the fidelity and convenience.
And it’s going to allow that power to exist in small-form-factor PCs, so that makes them even more attainable and desirable. Now a console is competing against the home work PC for those people who have limited budget and especially physical space in their home. It is the Ultimate Apartment Living Media Device.
If you even have a TV in that scenario, chances are, it’s next to your desk. You could get a $400 POS laptop and a $400-700 console and a $200-300 TV… or… you could buy a $900 high-tier laptop or mini-PC and that TV or a monitor. Obviously there isn’t a clear cut winner there depending on your seating and TV sharing needs…
But for a single guy on a budget this is revolutionary.
I don’t actually know how the prices will shake out for the AMD AI MAX+ 395 (rolls off the tongue), but I would be shocked if they shoot for much higher than 2-3x the current APU market at the top end.
Anyway, that’s all the ranting and raving I have time for this time. Of all the things I write, these B-side articles are me at my most unfettered, so if you’ve made it here—
Wow
That’s all. Have a nice day.